This study investigates the applicability of gravity models in predicting tourist arrivals in small island destinations. The aim of this study is to determine the applicability of gravity models to the case of small island destinations, as these models were not designed to be used to predict tourist behavior and due to the particularities of small island destinations. Using linear regression analysis, we examined the significance of two key gravity model variables: economic size and distance, across 34 small islands. The results revealed that neither economic size nor distance was a significant predictor of tourist arrivals in these islands. These findings underscore the unique challenges faced by small island destinations, which often defy the conventional assumptions of gravity models. This study has important implications for destination management, suggesting that alternative models and research methodologies should be explored to better capture the drivers of tourism in small island destinations.
